New tool for predicting drought

Water engineer Dr Shishutosh Barua from Victoria University has developed a way to predict droughts six months before they begin, which will help water managers to better understand when to instigate water-saving measures in dry times.

The new model was part of Barua’s PhD study of Melbourne’s major water source, the Yarra River catchment.

The tool he developed measures several water and climatic variables to assess dryness in an area and then uses past circumstances to predict future drought conditions.

As part of the study, Dr Barua also used his model to accurately detect past major historical droughts in Victoria.

He said previous prediction models focused on rainfall deficiency but that his model also measured water storage, stream flow, water in the soil and evaporation to gain a broader and more accurate assessment of a catchment’s dryness.

Dr Barua said the recent thirteen-year drought showed how vulnerable we were to water shortages in Australia and said he hoped his tool would allow governments and water authorities to better prepare for the next inevitable drought.

“There have been frequent droughts in the past 60 years and there will be more frequent drought in the coming years, according to the climate change scenario analysis,” Dr Barua said.