Tracking progress to Paris Agreement goals

An international research team has developed a new method for tracking the progress that individual countries are making towards meeting the global climate targets of the Paris Agreement. Their results have been published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Led by Glen Peters, a senior researcher at the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), the researchers used the ‘Kaya identity’ emissions equation to present measureable indicators related to climate and energy, thereby linking carbon emissions to their various drivers, such as economic growth and energy intensity of GDP. These indicators track progress at different levels of detail and different time periods.

Applying these indicators to global and country-level data, the authors showed that the amount of carbon produced per unit of energy has decreased in recent years (that is, the carbon intensity of energy has improved); however, energy use remains the largest emissions driver. They found that growth in solar and wind power has contributed to the emissions slowdown but that economic factors and improved energy efficiency have had a greater impact — suggesting a return to greater prosperity could reverse declining emissions.

While the indicators do suggest that the rate of current global carbon emissions is broadly on track to keeping warming below 2°C, the authors stated that further improvements in the carbon intensity of energy need to come from technological advances, accelerated expansion of renewables and widespread implementation of carbon capture and storage. Such advances would help countries stay on track to 2030 targets and the longer-term ambition of balancing any new emissions with emissions recaptured from the atmosphere (net-zero emissions).