Hydrological projections guide to help maintain water security

Charles Darwin University (CDU) researchers — supported by experts from CSIRO, GNS Science (now Earth Science NZ) and Acclimatised Pty Ltd — have developed a guide to making hydrological projections.

The researchers said their ‘Producing Hydrological Projections Under Climate Change: A Groundwater-Inclusive Practical Guide’, published in Earth’s Future, will help to maintain water security and environmental health as well as supporting climate change adaptation.

Currently, hydrological projections are complex to develop because they need skills and knowledge spanning climate science, hydrology and numerical modelling.

To combat this, PhD candidate Frédérique Mourot from CDU’s Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods has led the development of the guide to help water practitioners such as scientists, water resource managers, and water-dependent communities and industries obtain best-practice hydrological projections.

The guide summarises knowledge on climate and hydrological modelling to produce hydrological projections that can be used in local applications. It also explains how to best represent and communicate hydrological projection results, and the large uncertainty often associated with these results.

Nine key recommendations were made to produce meaningful and informative groundwater-inclusive hydrological projections. These include identifying the water and climate change question to investigate, determining the important local drivers to represent in both climate and hydrological models, and giving priority to models that appropriately simulate groundwater processes.

“Water resource managers, who often ask researchers to produce hydrological projections to assist them in protecting the local water resources, can use this guide to get appropriate hydrological projection results to help them determine sustainable water allocation limits,” Mourot said.

“They need to understand how the water quantity of aquifers and rivers (often fed by aquifers) will change in the future with changes in climatic conditions to adjust these water allocations accordingly, and maintain water security and ecological health.

“Getting the right modelling outputs from the scientists that will allow water resource managers to inform and adapt their policies and water allocation limits is essential.

“This guide can help them understand the process, technical jargon, and the basis of the climate and hydrological modelling science to better drive the outputs that scientists will prepare for them.”

Cooperative Research Centre for Developing Northern Australia (CRCNA) Chief Executive Anthony Curro said the guide was a valuable tool that would help strengthen decision-making across northern Australia.

“Water security is one of the most critical issues for the future of northern Australia,” Curro said. “This guide gives communities, industries and policymakers practical tools to plan for changing water conditions and to make informed choices that balance development opportunities with long-term sustainability.

“The CRCNA is proud to support CDU and its partners in delivering this vital work.”

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